Pathways to work in the developing world: An analysis of young persons’ transition from school to the workplace

Author(s) : Dachille, Giuseppe; Manacorda, Marco; Ranzani, Marco; Rosati, Furio C
Abstract : Moving from education into the world of work is a crucial phase in youth lives. There is ample evidence that initial difficulties in this process might have long lasting consequences. The scarcity of information about middle and low income countries has especially hampered research in this area. This paper contributes to fill this gap by analysing the School to Work Transition Surveys carried out by the ILO in 28 low and middle income countries in 2012 and 2013. We use hazard models to estimate the duration, the determinants and the characteristics of the transition to the first job and to a stable job. We make use of the so-called split population model that allows to endogenously identify the share of the population expected to never transit to employment (or to stable employment) and to estimate the duration of the transition for the part of the population expected to eventually transit to employment (stable employment). The results indicate that in many countries a substantial share of youth, especially female, is expected to never transit to a job and remain unemployed or out of the labour force. The number of youth that can be expected to eventually obtain a stable job is, not surprisingly substantially lower. In several countries, especially but not exclusively in SSA, far less than half of the youth can be expected to transit to a stable job. This reflects, of course, not only the difficulties of youth in accessing such jobs, but also the structural unavailability of this kind of job in the economy considered. The duration of transition (for those expected to transit) to a first job highlights a dichotomous situation: a large group of youth is able to obtain a job within three months since leaving school, while the group that does not succeed in securing a job quickly faces long waiting times. The substantially smaller part of youth who eventually succeed in obtaining a stable job, faces very long transition time in most of the countries considered in this study. Differences between countries are large, albeit regional patterns emerge. They cannot be explained by the different characteristics of the youth in the countries considered. Structural factors linked to the economy and/or to the functioning of the labour market are relevant. The association of school to work transition characteristics and some indicators of the characteristics of the economy offers some suggestive correlations. The analysis has also evidenced the still persisting gender gap in the transition to work. Female, independently of their level of education and other household circumstances, are less likely to ever transit to a job and, if they do transit, face longer transition times than males. However, this disadvantage does not fully carry over to the probability of finding a stable job. The disadvantage of early school leavers appears to be substantial not only with respect to finding a stable job (as might been expected), but also in terms of finding any job. Children who left school by age 15, not a negligible numbers in the countries considered, have lower probability to transit to any job and, if they transit, they face longer transition times than their peers with higher level of education. This finding contradicts the somehow diffused opinion that the youth with higher levels of education faces the most difficulties in transiting to the labour market.
Year : 2015
Country : Tanzania, Russian Federation, Liberia, Egypt, Vietnam, Nepal, Jamaica, Kyrgyz Republic, El Salvador, Samoa, Zambia, Jordan, Armenia, Brazil, Ukraine, Uganda, Togo, Colombia, Madagascar, Macedonia, FYR, Malawi, Cambodia, Benin, Moldova, Bangladesh, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Tunisia, Peru
Publisher : - -
Source : UCW Working Paper Series
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